The call for “constructive engagement” with Pakistan by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the response by his just-appointed counterpart in Islamabad — seeking “peaceful and cooperative ties” with India through “meaningful dialogue” — appear to provide an opening to expand cooperation between the two countries. That the Pakistan army appears keen to improve ties as well is also ground for cautious optimism.
On the face of it, Islamabad’s insistence on placing the Kashmir issue front and centre in its ties with India can scupper any attempts at diplomatic and commercial outreach. The rhetoric around Kashmir in the country’s domestic politics also means that more often than not, bilateral ties end up taking two steps back for every step forward. For example, last year, the then Prime Minister Imran Khan decided to roll back a decision that would have allowed the import of Indian cotton yarn and sugar over the Wagah border just days after he had signed off on the proposal. That decision put paid to the possibility of expanding the peace that the renewal of the 2003 ceasefire along the LOC just weeks earlier had brought in its wake. Hence, despite the ceasefire and the articulation of the so-called “Bajwa Doctrine” — the Pak Army chief has called for “geoeconomics” to replace geopolitics as a way to ensure peace and prosperity in the region — little headway has been made in ending the diplomatic freeze that came about in the wake of the Pulwama terror attack and the constitutional changes in the domestic status of Jammu and Kashmir. It is important to realise that at this juncture, Shehbaz Sharif heads an unstable coalition government and despite losing the no-confidence vote in the National Assembly, Imran Khan shows no signs of going quietly into the night.
There is, however, a template to gradually expand ties between the two countries. The ceasefire agreement — the peace has largely held since February 2021 — made room for continuing discussion on “core concerns” while allowing cooperation wherever possible. And, Pakistan allowed the over-land transport of Indian wheat to Afghanistan during the humanitarian crisis in the wake of the US’s withdrawal. That spirit can be used, in the short term, to pick the low-hanging fruit for the bilateral table. In fact, given the skirmishes and attacks along its western border with Afghanistan, Pakistan has every incentive to ensure stability to its east. Neither country has had a full-time high commissioner in the other since 2019, India has withdrawn the Most-Favoured-Nation status to Pakistan and the proposal for trade in cotton and sugar stands aborted. To begin with, each of these initiatives can be revived to broaden the opening that the two prime ministers have created.
